U.S. Soldier Allegedly Profited $2.3M on Venezuela Military Prediction Bet, Faces Up to 60 Years in Prison

Federal prosecutors in New York have officially unsealed criminal charges against a 38-year-old U.S. Army soldier accused of exploiting classified military intelligence for financial gain through a prediction market platform.

According to the indictment released on Thursday (23), Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly used sensitive defense-related information to anticipate the outcome of a military operation linked to Venezuela, placing strategic bets on the crypto-based platform Polymarket.

Authorities claim the soldier transferred funds through an offshore crypto exchange not operating within the United States and used them to place large wagers ahead of time, attempting to profit from non-public operational knowledge.

Van Dyke was reportedly part of a tactical planning unit involved in military operations related to naval and air force movements. Prosecutors argue that his actions violated lifetime confidentiality obligations tied to his service contract with the U.S. military.

An FBI official stated that the accused “betrayed his fellow soldiers by leveraging classified information for personal financial gain,” adding that he earned over $400,000 through multiple prediction contracts tied to Venezuela-related events.

Crypto Prediction Market Under Scrutiny

Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, allows users to trade outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrency. Authorities believe Van Dyke attempted to disguise his activity by using decentralized financial channels to avoid detection.

Investigators also warned that unusual trading patterns on sensitive geopolitical events can potentially expose classified operations to foreign intelligence actors, creating national security risks.

FBI officials emphasized that individuals with security clearance who misuse privileged information for profit will face prosecution without exception.

Millions in Profits and Digital Tracing

Reports indicate that Van Dyke invested approximately $33,000 in bets predicting a successful military escalation involving Venezuela, allegedly linked to events that unfolded between late 2025 and early 2026.

Following confirmation of the event outcome by public media sources, his prediction positions were settled, resulting in profits estimated at nearly $410,000 (around R$2.3 million).

Authorities say the suspect attempted to withdraw and obscure funds shortly after the payout, including efforts to delete account records. However, digital forensic tracking allowed investigators to reconstruct transaction flows and identify the user.

Prosecutors are now pursuing multiple charges, including financial fraud, misuse of classified information, and obstruction of justice.

If convicted, Van Dyke could face up to 60 years in federal prison.